AD Ceuta FC 1–0 Alcoyano: Result & Stats

AD Ceuta FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alcoyano

9/17/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AD Ceuta FC51%

×Draw27%

Alcoyano22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchAlcoyano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.83

AD Ceuta FC

1.44

Alcoyano

0.83

AD Ceuta FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

1.66

creates per match

0.91

0.76

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.66

Alcoyano

0.91

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

0.76

Alcoyano

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Alcoyano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

78%

AD Ceuta FC or Alcoyano

73%

Draw or Alcoyano

49%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

26%

Alcoyano wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

76%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

42%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

18%

Alcoyano 1+ goals

56%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

20%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

70%

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.66 + Alcoyano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Alcoyano attack 0.91 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

51%

level

27%

Alcoyano scores more

22%

AD Ceuta FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff