AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

AD Ceuta FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Alcorcon

10/23/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AD Ceuta FC34%

×Draw27%

Alcorcon39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

AD Ceuta FC

1.21

Alcorcon

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

1.37

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.68

Alcorcon

1.26

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.37

Alcorcon

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

61%

AD Ceuta FC or Alcorcon

73%

Draw or Alcorcon

66%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

14%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

70%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

34%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

12%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

73%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

38%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

47%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.68 + Alcorcon defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alcorcon attack 1.26 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

34%

level

27%

Alcorcon scores more

39%

Alcorcon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff