AD Carmelita 1–2 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

AD Carmelita

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Santa Ana

2/25/2026

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

AD Carmelita42%

×Draw25%

Santa Ana34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD CarmelitaExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.36

AD Carmelita

1.54

Santa Ana

1.36

AD Carmelita creates 13% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 110 away

1.64

creates per match

1.41

1.31

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

AD Carmelita

1.64

Santa Ana

1.41

allows per match

AD Carmelita

1.31

Santa Ana

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Santa Ana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw

66%

AD Carmelita or Santa Ana

75%

Draw or Santa Ana

58%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

21%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

79%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

45%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

20%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

74%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

39%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

55%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Santa Ana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Santa Ana attack 1.41 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Carmelita scores more

42%

level

25%

Santa Ana scores more

34%

AD Carmelita at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff