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AD Carmelita vs Rosario — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
FT
1 – 0
Rosario
Rosario
3/1/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AD Carmelita51%
×Draw25%
Rosario24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
1.61
Rosario
1.03

AD Carmelita creates 56% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 12 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
Rosario
0.75

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
Rosario
1.58

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
76%
AD Carmelita or Rosario
75%
Draw or Rosario
49%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
27%
Rosario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
80%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
48%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
22%
Rosario 1+ goals
64%
Rosario 2+ goals
28%
Rosario 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
68%
Rosario (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Rosario away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Rosario defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rosario attack 0.75 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
51%
level
25%
Rosario scores more
24%

AD Carmelita at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Carmelita vs Rosario

AD Carmelita beat Rosario 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.