AD Carmelita 2–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

AD Carmelita

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

9/4/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AD Carmelita50%

×Draw25%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD CarmelitaExpected goals in this matchPitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

AD Carmelita

1.60

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

1.05

AD Carmelita creates 52% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 14 away

1.64

creates per match

0.79

1.31

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

AD Carmelita

1.64

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

0.79

allows per match

AD Carmelita

1.31

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw

75%

AD Carmelita or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

75%

Draw or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

50%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

26%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

80%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

47%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

22%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals

65%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals

28%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

67%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 0.79 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AD Carmelita scores more

50%

level

25%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more

25%

AD Carmelita at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff