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AD Carmelita vs Jacó — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jacó
Jacó
8/27/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 7Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AD Carmelita61%
×Draw19%
Jacó20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
2.40
Jacó
1.32

AD Carmelita creates 82% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 12 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
Jacó
1.33

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
Jacó
3.17

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
Jacó+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Jacó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
80%
AD Carmelita or Jacó
81%
Draw or Jacó
39%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
39%
Jacó wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
91%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
69%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
42%
Jacó 1+ goals
73%
Jacó 2+ goals
38%
Jacó 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
75%
Jacó (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Jacó away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Jacó defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.40

Jacó attack 1.33 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
61%
level
19%
Jacó scores more
20%

AD Carmelita at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Carmelita vs Jacó

Jacó beat AD Carmelita 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.