AD Carmelita 4–2 Escazucena: Result & Stats

AD Carmelita

FT

4 – 2

Escazucena

J. Alvarado 76'

F. Montenegro 58' (OG)

I. Quesada 55'

M. Pablo 51'

K. Chinchilla 41'

J. Alcocer 18'

2/26/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

AD Carmelita46%

×Draw24%

Escazucena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD CarmelitaExpected goals in this matchEscazucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

AD Carmelita

1.67

Escazucena

1.29

AD Carmelita creates 29% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 79 away

1.64

creates per match

1.28

1.31

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

AD Carmelita

1.64

Escazucena

1.28

allows per match

AD Carmelita

1.31

Escazucena

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Escazucena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw

70%

AD Carmelita or Escazucena

76%

Draw or Escazucena

54%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

24%

Escazucena wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

81%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

50%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

23%

Escazucena 1+ goals

72%

Escazucena 2+ goals

37%

Escazucena 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

61%

Escazucena (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Escazucena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Escazucena attack 1.28 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Carmelita scores more

46%

level

24%

Escazucena scores more

30%

AD Carmelita at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. Alcocer

41'

K. Chinchilla

51'

M. Pablo

55'

I. Quesada

58'

F. MontenegroOwn goal

76'

J. Alvarado

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff