Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AD Carmelita vs Deportivo Cartagena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
FT
3 – 3
Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
2/23/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AD Carmelita46%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Cartagena32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
1.85
Deportivo Cartagena
1.52

AD Carmelita creates 22% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 32 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
Deportivo Cartagena
1.72

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
Deportivo Cartagena
2.06

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
68%
AD Carmelita or Deportivo Cartagena
77%
Draw or Deportivo Cartagena
54%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
84%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
55%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
28%
Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.85

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
46%
level
23%
Deportivo Cartagena scores more
32%

AD Carmelita at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Carmelita 3–3 Deportivo Cartagena

AD Carmelita and Deportivo Cartagena drew 3-3 in Liga de Ascenso on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.