AD Carmelita vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 43+ matches
AD Carmelita41%
Barrio México34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AD Carmelita creates 10% more chances
Season form · 106 home / 43 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AD Carmelita ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches
Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50
Barrio México attack 1.42 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
AD Carmelita at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Inter San Carlos
Escorpiones Belén
ADR Jicaral
Quepos Cambute
Futbol Consultants Moravia
CS Uruguay
AD Cofutpa
AD Sarchí
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Cariari Pococi
Santa Cruz FC
Santa AnaAD Carmelita
Municipal Grecia
Aserri FC
Deportivo UpalaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
AD Carmelita host Barrio México on Sunday, 5 April 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga de Ascenso 2018/2019 season.
AD Carmelita vs Barrio México — Match Preview
AD Carmelita face Barrio México on April 5, 2020 in this Liga de Ascenso fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
AD Carmelita host Barrio México at Estadio Rafael Bolaños.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.