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AD Carmelita vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Antioquia
Antioquia
10/13/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AD Carmelita50%
×Draw23%
Antioquia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
1.79
Antioquia
1.23

AD Carmelita creates 46% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 32 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
74%
AD Carmelita or Antioquia
77%
Draw or Antioquia
50%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
28%
Antioquia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
83%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
53%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
26%
Antioquia 1+ goals
71%
Antioquia 2+ goals
35%
Antioquia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
66%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.79

Antioquia attack 1.16 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
50%
level
23%
Antioquia scores more
26%

AD Carmelita at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Carmelita vs Antioquia

AD Carmelita beat Antioquia 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.