AD Carmelita 0–7 ADR Jicaral: Result & Stats

AD Carmelita

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

ADR Jicaral

1/12/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

AD Carmelita37%

×Draw26%

ADR Jicaral37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD CarmelitaExpected goals in this matchADR Jicaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.33

AD Carmelita

1.35

ADR Jicaral

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 96 away

1.64

creates per match

1.34

1.31

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

AD Carmelita

1.64

ADR Jicaral

1.34

allows per match

AD Carmelita

1.31

ADR Jicaral

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

ADR Jicaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw

63%

AD Carmelita or ADR Jicaral

74%

Draw or ADR Jicaral

63%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

17%

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

74%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

39%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

15%

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals

74%

ADR Jicaral 2+ goals

38%

ADR Jicaral 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

51%

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

ADR Jicaral attack 1.34 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AD Carmelita scores more

37%

level

26%

ADR Jicaral scores more

37%

AD Carmelita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff