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ACV vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

ACV
ACV
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
4/13/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 29Sportpark ICT Specialist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ACV40%
×Draw25%
SVV Scheveningen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.50
SVV Scheveningen
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 83 away

creates per match

ACV
1.49
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

ACV
1.61
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ACV or draw
65%
ACV or SVV Scheveningen
75%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
60%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
20%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
78%
ACV 2+ goals
44%
ACV 3+ goals
19%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
75%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
40%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
54%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.49 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + ACV defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ACV scores more
40%
level
25%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
35%

ACV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACV vs SVV Scheveningen

SVV Scheveningen beat ACV 3-0 in Tweede Divisie on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark ICT Specialist in Assen.