ACV 1–2 Spakenburg: Result & Stats | Tweede Divisie

ACV

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spakenburg

9/7/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 4Sportpark ICT Specialist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ACV38%

×Draw23%

Spakenburg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACVExpected goals in this matchSpakenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.70

ACV

1.66

Spakenburg

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 101 away

1.49

creates per match

1.79

1.61

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

ACV

1.49

Spakenburg

1.79

allows per match

ACV

1.61

Spakenburg

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACV+0.00on par

Spakenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Spakenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ACV or draw

61%

ACV or Spakenburg

77%

Draw or Spakenburg

62%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+

19%

Spakenburg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals

81%

ACV 2+ goals

49%

ACV 3+ goals

23%

Spakenburg 1+ goals

82%

Spakenburg 2+ goals

51%

Spakenburg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)

49%

Spakenburg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.49 + Spakenburg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Spakenburg attack 1.79 + ACV defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ACV scores more

38%

level

23%

Spakenburg scores more

39%

Spakenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff