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ACV vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

ACV
ACV
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
8/24/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 2Sportpark ICT Specialist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ACV39%
×Draw24%
Koninklijke HFC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.53
Koninklijke HFC
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 99 away

creates per match

ACV
1.49
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

ACV
1.61
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ACV or draw
63%
ACV or Koninklijke HFC
76%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
61%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
19%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
78%
ACV 2+ goals
45%
ACV 3+ goals
20%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
77%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
43%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
51%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.49 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + ACV defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ACV scores more
39%
level
24%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
37%

ACV at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACV vs Koninklijke HFC

Koninklijke HFC beat ACV 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark ICT Specialist in Assen.