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ACV vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

ACV
ACV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Katwijk
Katwijk
5/18/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 33Sportpark ICT Specialist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ACV32%
×Draw24%
Katwijk44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.41
Katwijk
1.68

Katwijk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

creates per match

ACV
1.49
Katwijk
1.75

allows per match

ACV
1.61
Katwijk
1.32

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Katwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ACV or draw
56%
ACV or Katwijk
76%
Draw or Katwijk
68%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
15%
Katwijk wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
76%
ACV 2+ goals
41%
ACV 3+ goals
17%
Katwijk 1+ goals
81%
Katwijk 2+ goals
50%
Katwijk 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
42%
Katwijk (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.49 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Katwijk attack 1.75 + ACV defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ACV scores more
32%
level
24%
Katwijk scores more
44%

Katwijk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACV vs Katwijk

ACV beat Katwijk 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark ICT Specialist in Assen.