ACV 3–2 Barendrecht: Result & Stats

ACV

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Barendrecht

T. Sopacua 52'

S. Strijker 45'

Danny Monster 27' (OG)

J. Jongman 90+1'

Tapmahou Sopacua 36'

3/25/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 26Catawiki Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ACV42%

×Draw24%

Barendrecht35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACVExpected goals in this matchBarendrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.49

ACV

1.66

Barendrecht

1.49

ACV creates 11% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 50 away

1.64

creates per match

1.84

1.14

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

ACV

1.64

Barendrecht

1.84

allows per match

ACV

1.14

Barendrecht

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACV+0.00on par

Barendrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Barendrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

ACV or draw

65%

ACV or Barendrecht

76%

Draw or Barendrecht

58%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+

21%

Barendrecht wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals

81%

ACV 2+ goals

49%

ACV 3+ goals

23%

Barendrecht 1+ goals

77%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

44%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)

55%

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Barendrecht away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.68 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.64 + Barendrecht defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.66

Barendrecht attack 1.84 + ACV defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ACV scores more

42%

level

24%

Barendrecht scores more

35%

ACV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Danny MonsterOwn goal

36'

Tapmahou Sopacua

45'

S. Strijker

52'

T. Sopacua

90+1'

J. Jongman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff