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ACV vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ACV
ACV
CANC
13:30
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
11/21/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 12Catawiki Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ACV54%
×Draw23%
Ajax Amateurs23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.84
Ajax Amateurs
1.13

ACV creates 63% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 49 away

creates per match

ACV
1.64
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

ACV
1.14
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ACV or draw
77%
ACV or Ajax Amateurs
77%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
46%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
30%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
84%
ACV 2+ goals
55%
ACV 3+ goals
28%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
68%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
31%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
70%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.64 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + ACV defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ACV scores more
54%
level
23%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
23%

ACV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: ACV host Ajax Amateurs

November 21, 2020: ACV take on Ajax Amateurs in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

ACV host Ajax Amateurs at Catawiki Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.