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Actonians W vs Crawley Wasps W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Actonians W
Actonians W
FT
3 – 1
Crawley Wasps W
Crawley Wasps W
12/1/2019FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundRectory Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Actonians W76%
×Draw14%
Crawley Wasps W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Actonians W
3.04
Crawley Wasps W
1.04

Actonians W creates 192% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Actonians W
1.75
Crawley Wasps W
0.33

allows per match

Actonians W
1.75
Crawley Wasps W
4.33

finishing

Actonians W+0.00on par
Crawley Wasps W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Actonians W ↓

Crawley Wasps W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Actonians W or draw
90%
Actonians W or Crawley Wasps W
86%
Draw or Crawley Wasps W
24%

Winning margin

Actonians W wins by 2+
57%
Crawley Wasps W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Actonians W 1+ goals
95%
Actonians W 2+ goals
80%
Actonians W 3+ goals
57%
Crawley Wasps W 1+ goals
65%
Crawley Wasps W 2+ goals
28%
Crawley Wasps W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Actonians W (draw refunded)
88%
Crawley Wasps W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Actonians W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Crawley Wasps W away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Actonians W attack 1.75 + Crawley Wasps W defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.04

Crawley Wasps W attack 0.33 + Actonians W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Actonians W scores more
76%
level
14%
Crawley Wasps W scores more
10%

Actonians W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Actonians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Actonians W 3–1 Crawley Wasps W

Actonians W beat Crawley Wasps W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Rectory Park in Northolt, Middlesex.