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Actonians W vs AFC Wimbledon W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Actonians W
Actonians W
FT
2 – 1
AFC Wimbledon W
AFC Wimbledon W
11/10/2019FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundRectory Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Actonians W30%
×Draw21%
AFC Wimbledon W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Actonians W
1.71
AFC Wimbledon W
2.21

AFC Wimbledon W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Actonians W
1.75
AFC Wimbledon W
2.67

allows per match

Actonians W
1.75
AFC Wimbledon W
1.67

finishing

Actonians W+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Actonians W ↓

AFC Wimbledon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Actonians W or draw
51%
Actonians W or AFC Wimbledon W
79%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon W
70%

Winning margin

Actonians W wins by 2+
15%
AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Actonians W 1+ goals
82%
Actonians W 2+ goals
51%
Actonians W 3+ goals
24%
AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals
89%
AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals
65%
AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Actonians W (draw refunded)
38%
AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Actonians W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

AFC Wimbledon W away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Actonians W attack 1.75 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

AFC Wimbledon W attack 2.67 + Actonians W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Actonians W scores more
30%
level
21%
AFC Wimbledon W scores more
49%

AFC Wimbledon W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Actonians W 2–1 AFC Wimbledon W

Actonians W beat AFC Wimbledon W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Rectory Park in Northolt, Middlesex.