ACS Sirineasa 1–0 Viitorul Şelimbăr: Result & Stats

ACS Sirineasa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viitorul Şelimbăr

3/12/2022

Liga II · Round 19Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

ACS Sirineasa38%

×Draw27%

Viitorul Şelimbăr35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACS SirineasaExpected goals in this matchViitorul Şelimbăr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

ACS Sirineasa

1.29

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 69 away

1.36

creates per match

0.96

1.47

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.36

Viitorul Şelimbăr

0.96

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.47

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw

65%

ACS Sirineasa or Viitorul Şelimbăr

73%

Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr

62%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

17%

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

72%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

37%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

14%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals

70%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals

34%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

53%

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more

38%

level

27%

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more

35%

ACS Sirineasa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff