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ACS Sirineasa vs Uta Arad — Liga II 2018

ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
4/26/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 32Stadionul Jiul (Petroşani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ACS Sirineasa35%
×Draw25%
Uta Arad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Sirineasa
1.35
Uta Arad
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 33 away

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.36
Uta Arad
1.45

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.47
Uta Arad
1.33

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw
60%
ACS Sirineasa or Uta Arad
75%
Draw or Uta Arad
65%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
16%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
74%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
39%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
15%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
77%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
43%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
47%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Uta Arad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more
35%
level
25%
Uta Arad scores more
40%

Uta Arad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACS Sirineasa vs Uta Arad

ACS Sirineasa and Uta Arad drew 2-2 in Liga II on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Jiul (Petroşani).