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ACS Sirineasa vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
11/26/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

ACS Sirineasa38%
×Draw27%
Unirea Dej35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Sirineasa
1.25
Unirea Dej
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 38 away

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.36
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.47
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw
65%
ACS Sirineasa or Unirea Dej
73%
Draw or Unirea Dej
62%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
17%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
71%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
36%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
13%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
69%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
33%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
52%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more
38%
level
27%
Unirea Dej scores more
35%

ACS Sirineasa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: ACS Sirineasa 2–1 Unirea Dej

ACS Sirineasa beat Unirea Dej 2-1 in Liga II on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Drobeta-Turnu Severin.