ACS Sirineasa vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

ACS Sirineasa

CANC

09:00

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

3/28/2020

Liga II · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ACS Sirineasa35%

×Draw25%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACS SirineasaExpected goals in this matchTurris-Oltul T. Măgurele

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.50

ACS Sirineasa

1.37

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 21 away

1.36

creates per match

1.52

1.47

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.36

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

1.52

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.47

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw

60%

ACS Sirineasa or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

75%

Draw or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

65%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

16%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

75%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

40%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

16%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals

78%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals

44%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

46%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more

35%

level

25%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more

40%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff