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ACS Sirineasa vs Tunari — Liga II 2018

ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tunari
Tunari
4/27/2024Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 5Stadionul Municipal Constantina Diță

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ACS Sirineasa45%
×Draw25%
Tunari30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Sirineasa
1.60
Tunari
1.27

ACS Sirineasa creates 26% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 26 away

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.36
Tunari
1.08

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.47
Tunari
1.85

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par
Tunari+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Tunari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw
70%
ACS Sirineasa or Tunari
75%
Draw or Tunari
55%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
23%
Tunari wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
80%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
47%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
22%
Tunari 1+ goals
72%
Tunari 2+ goals
36%
Tunari 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
60%
Tunari (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Tunari away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Tunari defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tunari attack 1.08 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more
45%
level
25%
Tunari scores more
30%

ACS Sirineasa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: ACS Sirineasa 1–2 Tunari

Tunari beat ACS Sirineasa 2-1 in Liga II on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Constantina Diță in Târgu Jiu.