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ACS Sirineasa vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
8/20/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ACS Sirineasa34%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Bucuresti39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Sirineasa
1.22
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.36
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.20

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.47
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.07

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par
Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw
61%
ACS Sirineasa or Dinamo Bucuresti
73%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
66%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
70%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
34%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
46%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.20 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more
34%
level
27%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
39%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: ACS Sirineasa 2–0 Dinamo Bucuresti

ACS Sirineasa beat Dinamo Bucuresti 2-0 in Liga II on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu in Târgu Jiu.