Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ACS Sirineasa vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
10/6/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 10Stadionul Jiul (Petroşani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Sirineasa73%
×Draw15%
Dacia Unirea Braila12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Sirineasa
2.79
Dacia Unirea Braila
1.07

ACS Sirineasa creates 161% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 19 away

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.36
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.47
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw
88%
ACS Sirineasa or Dacia Unirea Braila
85%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
27%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
52%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
94%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
76%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
52%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
66%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
29%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
86%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.79

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more
73%
level
15%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
12%

ACS Sirineasa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACS Sirineasa vs Dacia Unirea Braila

ACS Sirineasa beat Dacia Unirea Braila 4-0 in Liga II on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Jiul (Petroşani).