ACS Sirineasa 0–2 CSA Steaua Bucureşti

ACS Sirineasa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

3/30/2024

Liga II · Relegation Round - 1Stadionul Municipal Constantina Diță

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

ACS Sirineasa33%

×Draw26%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACS SirineasaExpected goals in this matchCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.46

ACS Sirineasa

1.27

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.46

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 15% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 72 away

1.36

creates per match

1.46

1.47

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.36

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.46

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.47

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw

58%

ACS Sirineasa or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

74%

Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

67%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

14%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

72%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

36%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

14%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals

77%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals

43%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

44%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more

33%

level

26%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more

42%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff