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ACS Sirineasa vs CS Balotesti — Liga II 2018

ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
11/10/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 16Stadionul Jiul (Petroşani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Sirineasa61%
×Draw20%
CS Balotesti19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Sirineasa
2.16
CS Balotesti
1.10

ACS Sirineasa creates 96% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 19 away

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.36
CS Balotesti
0.74

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.47
CS Balotesti
2.95

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par
CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

CS Balotesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw
81%
ACS Sirineasa or CS Balotesti
80%
Draw or CS Balotesti
39%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
38%
CS Balotesti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
88%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
63%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
36%
CS Balotesti 1+ goals
67%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
30%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
77%
CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

CS Balotesti away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + CS Balotesti defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.16

CS Balotesti attack 0.74 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more
61%
level
20%
CS Balotesti scores more
19%

ACS Sirineasa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: ACS Sirineasa 3–0 CS Balotesti

ACS Sirineasa beat CS Balotesti 3-0 in Liga II on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Jiul (Petroşani).