ACS Poli Timisoara 1–1 Pandurii TG JIU

ACS Poli Timisoara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pandurii TG JIU

9/29/2018

Liga II · Round 9Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Poli Timisoara48%

×Draw24%

Pandurii TG JIU28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACS Poli TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchPandurii TG JIU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.24

ACS Poli Timisoara

1.69

Pandurii TG JIU

1.24

ACS Poli Timisoara creates 36% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

1.05

creates per match

0.95

1.53

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

ACS Poli Timisoara

1.05

Pandurii TG JIU

0.95

allows per match

ACS Poli Timisoara

1.53

Pandurii TG JIU

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Poli Timisoara ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

ACS Poli Timisoara or draw

72%

ACS Poli Timisoara or Pandurii TG JIU

76%

Draw or Pandurii TG JIU

52%

Winning margin

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+

25%

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals

82%

ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals

50%

ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals

24%

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals

71%

Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals

35%

Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)

63%

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Poli Timisoara at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 1.05 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more

48%

level

24%

Pandurii TG JIU scores more

28%

ACS Poli Timisoara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ACS Poli Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff