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ACS Poli Timisoara vs Metaloglobus — Liga II 2018

ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
4/10/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 29Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Poli Timisoara35%
×Draw27%
Metaloglobus38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.24
Metaloglobus
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.05
Metaloglobus
1.07

allows per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.53
Metaloglobus
1.43

finishing

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par
Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Poli Timisoara ↓

Metaloglobus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ACS Poli Timisoara or draw
62%
ACS Poli Timisoara or Metaloglobus
73%
Draw or Metaloglobus
65%

Winning margin

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
15%
Metaloglobus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
71%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
35%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
13%
Metaloglobus 1+ goals
73%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
37%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
48%
Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Poli Timisoara at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 1.05 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
35%
level
27%
Metaloglobus scores more
38%

Metaloglobus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACS Poli Timisoara vs Metaloglobus

ACS Poli Timisoara beat Metaloglobus 1-0 in Liga II on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara).