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Achuapa vs Zacapa Tellioz — Liga Nacional 2019

Achuapa
Achuapa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zacapa Tellioz
Zacapa Tellioz
9/17/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 8Estadio Winston Pineda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Achuapa58%
×Draw24%
Zacapa Tellioz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achuapa
1.69
Zacapa Tellioz
0.83

Achuapa creates 104% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 26 away

creates per match

Achuapa
1.25
Zacapa Tellioz
0.65

allows per match

Achuapa
1.02
Zacapa Tellioz
2.12

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par
Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Zacapa Tellioz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw
82%
Achuapa or Zacapa Tellioz
76%
Draw or Zacapa Tellioz
42%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+
32%
Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals
82%
Achuapa 2+ goals
50%
Achuapa 3+ goals
24%
Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals
56%
Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals
20%
Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)
76%
Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Zacapa Tellioz away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zacapa Tellioz attack 0.65 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Achuapa scores more
58%
level
24%
Zacapa Tellioz scores more
18%

Achuapa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Achuapa 3–1 Zacapa Tellioz

Achuapa beat Zacapa Tellioz 3-1 in Liga Nacional on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Winston Pineda in Jutiapa.