Achuapa 1–1 Nueva Concepción: Result & Stats

Achuapa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nueva Concepción

2/20/2022

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 8Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Achuapa69%

×Draw19%

Nueva Concepción12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AchuapaExpected goals in this matchNueva Concepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.73

Achuapa

2.10

Nueva Concepción

0.73

Achuapa creates 188% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 22 away

1.25

creates per match

0.45

1.02

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Achuapa

1.25

Nueva Concepción

0.45

allows per match

Achuapa

1.02

Nueva Concepción

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par

Nueva Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Nueva Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw

88%

Achuapa or Nueva Concepción

81%

Draw or Nueva Concepción

31%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+

44%

Nueva Concepción wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals

88%

Achuapa 2+ goals

62%

Achuapa 3+ goals

35%

Nueva Concepción 1+ goals

52%

Nueva Concepción 2+ goals

17%

Nueva Concepción 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)

85%

Nueva Concepción (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Nueva Concepción away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Nueva Concepción defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.10

Nueva Concepción attack 0.45 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Achuapa scores more

69%

level

19%

Nueva Concepción scores more

12%

Achuapa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff