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Achuapa vs Iztapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Achuapa
Achuapa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Iztapa
Iztapa
4/28/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 15Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Achuapa54%
×Draw24%
Iztapa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achuapa
1.69
Iztapa
0.98

Achuapa creates 72% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 82 away

creates per match

Achuapa
1.25
Iztapa
0.95

allows per match

Achuapa
1.02
Iztapa
2.12

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par
Iztapa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Iztapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw
78%
Achuapa or Iztapa
76%
Draw or Iztapa
46%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+
29%
Iztapa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals
82%
Achuapa 2+ goals
50%
Achuapa 3+ goals
24%
Iztapa 1+ goals
62%
Iztapa 2+ goals
26%
Iztapa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)
71%
Iztapa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Iztapa away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Iztapa defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.69

Iztapa attack 0.95 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Achuapa scores more
54%
level
24%
Iztapa scores more
22%

Achuapa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Achuapa vs Iztapa

Iztapa beat Achuapa 3-0 in Liga Nacional on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza in El Progreso, Jutiapa.