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Achuapa vs Deportivo Sanarate — Liga Nacional 2019

Achuapa
Achuapa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Sanarate
Deportivo Sanarate
4/11/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 10Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Achuapa51%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Sanarate25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achuapa
1.63
Deportivo Sanarate
1.06

Achuapa creates 54% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 35 away

creates per match

Achuapa
1.25
Deportivo Sanarate
1.09

allows per match

Achuapa
1.02
Deportivo Sanarate
2.00

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par
Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Deportivo Sanarate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw
75%
Achuapa or Deportivo Sanarate
75%
Draw or Deportivo Sanarate
49%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals
80%
Achuapa 2+ goals
48%
Achuapa 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Deportivo Sanarate away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.09 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Achuapa scores more
51%
level
25%
Deportivo Sanarate scores more
25%

Achuapa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Achuapa vs Deportivo Sanarate

Achuapa and Deportivo Sanarate drew 2-2 in Liga Nacional on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza in El Progreso, Jutiapa.