Achiless 29 W 2–6 Heerenveen W: Result & Stats

Achiless 29 W

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 4

Heerenveen W

3/19/2019

Eredivisie Women · Lower Table Round - 4Sportpark De Heikant (Groesbeek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Achiless 29 W20%

×Draw16%

Heerenveen W63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Achiless 29 WExpected goals in this matchHeerenveen W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

3.08

Achiless 29 W

1.75

Heerenveen W

3.08

Heerenveen W creates 76% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 73 away

1.17

creates per match

1.42

4.75

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Achiless 29 W

1.17

Heerenveen W

1.42

allows per match

Achiless 29 W

4.75

Heerenveen W

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Achiless 29 W+0.00on par

Heerenveen W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achiless 29 W ↓

Heerenveen W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Achiless 29 W or draw

37%

Achiless 29 W or Heerenveen W

84%

Draw or Heerenveen W

80%

Winning margin

Achiless 29 W wins by 2+

9%

Heerenveen W wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Achiless 29 W 1+ goals

83%

Achiless 29 W 2+ goals

52%

Achiless 29 W 3+ goals

25%

Heerenveen W 1+ goals

95%

Heerenveen W 2+ goals

81%

Heerenveen W 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)

24%

Heerenveen W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achiless 29 W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.75 · 12 matches

Heerenveen W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achiless 29 W attack 1.17 + Heerenveen W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Heerenveen W attack 1.42 + Achiless 29 W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Achiless 29 W scores more

20%

level

16%

Heerenveen W scores more

63%

Heerenveen W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Heerenveen W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff