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Achiless 29 W vs ADO Den Haag W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Achiless 29 W
Achiless 29 W
FT
1 – 9
HT: 1 – 3
ADO Den Haag W
ADO Den Haag W
10/12/2018Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 5Sportpark De Heikant (Groesbeek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Achiless 29 W14%
×Draw15%
ADO Den Haag W71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achiless 29 W
1.40
ADO Den Haag W
3.17

ADO Den Haag W creates 126% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 73 away

creates per match

Achiless 29 W
1.17
ADO Den Haag W
1.60

allows per match

Achiless 29 W
4.75
ADO Den Haag W
1.63

finishing

Achiless 29 W+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achiless 29 W ↓

ADO Den Haag W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Achiless 29 W or draw
29%
Achiless 29 W or ADO Den Haag W
85%
Draw or ADO Den Haag W
86%

Winning margin

Achiless 29 W wins by 2+
6%
ADO Den Haag W wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Achiless 29 W 1+ goals
75%
Achiless 29 W 2+ goals
41%
Achiless 29 W 3+ goals
17%
ADO Den Haag W 1+ goals
96%
ADO Den Haag W 2+ goals
82%
ADO Den Haag W 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)
17%
ADO Den Haag W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achiless 29 W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.75 · 12 matches

ADO Den Haag W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achiless 29 W attack 1.17 + ADO Den Haag W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

ADO Den Haag W attack 1.60 + Achiless 29 W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Achiless 29 W scores more
14%
level
15%
ADO Den Haag W scores more
71%

ADO Den Haag W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "ADO Den Haag W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Achiless 29 W vs ADO Den Haag W

ADO Den Haag W beat Achiless 29 W 9-1 in Eredivisie Women on October 12, 2018.

The match was played at Sportpark De Heikant (Groesbeek).