Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ÅCF vs NoPS — Suomen Cup 2018

ÅCF
ÅCF
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
NoPS
NoPS
5/6/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKupittaan Kentät

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ÅCF8%
×Draw12%
NoPS81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÅCF
1.02
NoPS
3.38

NoPS creates 231% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

ÅCF
1.33
NoPS
4.43

allows per match

ÅCF
2.33
NoPS
0.71

finishing

ÅCF+0.00on par
NoPS+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÅCF ↓

NoPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

ÅCF or draw
19%
ÅCF or NoPS
88%
Draw or NoPS
92%

Winning margin

ÅCF wins by 2+
3%
NoPS wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

ÅCF 1+ goals
64%
ÅCF 2+ goals
27%
ÅCF 3+ goals
8%
NoPS 1+ goals
96%
NoPS 2+ goals
84%
NoPS 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

ÅCF (draw refunded)
9%
NoPS (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÅCF at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

NoPS away — creates 4.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÅCF attack 1.33 + NoPS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

NoPS attack 4.43 + ÅCF defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

ÅCF scores more
8%
level
12%
NoPS scores more
81%

NoPS at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "NoPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ÅCF 1 – 5 NoPS

NoPS beat ÅCF 5-1 in Suomen Cup on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Kupittaan Kentät in Åbo.