Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ÅCF vs KaaPo — Suomen Cup 2018

ÅCF
ÅCF
FT
1 – 2
KaaPo
KaaPo
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundPuuha-areena KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ÅCF7%
×Draw11%
KaaPo81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÅCF
0.95
KaaPo
3.31

KaaPo creates 248% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

ÅCF
1.33
KaaPo
4.29

allows per match

ÅCF
2.33
KaaPo
0.57

finishing

ÅCF+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÅCF ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

ÅCF or draw
19%
ÅCF or KaaPo
89%
Draw or KaaPo
93%

Winning margin

ÅCF wins by 2+
2%
KaaPo wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

ÅCF 1+ goals
61%
ÅCF 2+ goals
25%
ÅCF 3+ goals
7%
KaaPo 1+ goals
96%
KaaPo 2+ goals
83%
KaaPo 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

ÅCF (draw refunded)
8%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÅCF at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

KaaPo away — creates 4.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÅCF attack 1.33 + KaaPo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

KaaPo attack 4.29 + ÅCF defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

ÅCF scores more
7%
level
11%
KaaPo scores more
81%

KaaPo at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "KaaPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: ÅCF 1–2 KaaPo

KaaPo beat ÅCF 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Puuha-areena KHT in Kaarina.