Aceuchal 0–3 Villanovense: Result & Stats

Aceuchal

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Villanovense

Diego Gregori 50'

Dani Martínez 37'

David Barca 17'

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Polideportivo Municipal Aceuchal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aceuchal33%

×Draw29%

Villanovense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AceuchalExpected goals in this matchVillanovense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.15

Aceuchal

1.05

Villanovense

1.15

Villanovense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 31 away

1.14

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Aceuchal

1.14

Villanovense

1.23

allows per match

Aceuchal

1.07

Villanovense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aceuchal+0.00on par

Villanovense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aceuchal ↓

Villanovense →

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Aceuchal or draw

62%

Aceuchal or Villanovense

71%

Draw or Villanovense

67%

Winning margin

Aceuchal wins by 2+

13%

Villanovense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aceuchal 1+ goals

65%

Aceuchal 2+ goals

28%

Aceuchal 3+ goals

Villanovense 1+ goals

68%

Villanovense 2+ goals

32%

Villanovense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aceuchal (draw refunded)

46%

Villanovense (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aceuchal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Villanovense away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aceuchal attack 1.14 + Villanovense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Villanovense attack 1.23 + Aceuchal defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aceuchal scores more

33%

level

29%

Villanovense scores more

38%

Villanovense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villanovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

David Barca

37'

Dani Martínez

46'

Iván Colín← Cristian

46'

Juanan← Manuel Salazar

46'

Ángel Escorial← Marcos Álvarez

50'

Diego Gregori

73'

Fran Viñuela← José Ángel

80'

Juanpe← Óscar Martín

81'

Belencoso← David Barca

Aceuchal

Villanovense

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Cisqui

46'▲Iván Colín←▼Cristian

46'▲Juanan←▼Manuel Salazar

46'▲Ángel Escorial←▼Marcos Álvarez

Aceuchal substitutes

ColínJuananEscorial

Manager: José Masegosa

73'▲Fran Viñuela←▼José Ángel

80'▲Juanpe←▼Óscar Martín

81'▲Belencoso←▼David Barca

Villanovense substitutes

ViñuelaJuanpeBelencoso

Match Recap: Aceuchal vs Villanovense

Villanovense beat Aceuchal 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 24, 2019.

Goals: David Barca (17'), Dani Martínez (37'), Diego Gregori (50').

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Aceuchal in Aceuchal.

Aceuchal vs Villanovense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Aceuchal vs Villanovense