Aceuchal 0–4 Miajadas: Result & Stats

Aceuchal

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Miajadas

11/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 12Polideportivo Municipal Aceuchal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Aceuchal45%

×Draw28%

Miajadas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AceuchalExpected goals in this matchMiajadas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.92

Aceuchal

1.30

Miajadas

0.92

Aceuchal creates 41% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 57 away

1.14

creates per match

0.77

1.07

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Aceuchal

1.14

Miajadas

0.77

allows per match

Aceuchal

1.07

Miajadas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aceuchal+0.00on par

Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aceuchal ↓

Miajadas →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Aceuchal or draw

74%

Aceuchal or Miajadas

72%

Draw or Miajadas

55%

Winning margin

Aceuchal wins by 2+

21%

Miajadas wins by 2+

Team goals

Aceuchal 1+ goals

73%

Aceuchal 2+ goals

37%

Aceuchal 3+ goals

14%

Miajadas 1+ goals

60%

Miajadas 2+ goals

23%

Miajadas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Aceuchal (draw refunded)

63%

Miajadas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aceuchal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aceuchal attack 1.14 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Miajadas attack 0.77 + Aceuchal defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aceuchal scores more

45%

level

28%

Miajadas scores more

26%

Aceuchal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aceuchal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff