Acero 1–0 Villajoyosa: Result & Stats

Acero

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villajoyosa

4/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Acero50%

×Draw28%

Villajoyosa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AceroExpected goals in this matchVillajoyosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.83

Acero

1.39

Villajoyosa

0.83

Acero creates 67% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 32 away

1.22

creates per match

0.56

1.10

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Acero

1.22

Villajoyosa

0.56

allows per match

Acero

1.10

Villajoyosa

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Acero+0.00on par

Villajoyosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acero ↓

Villajoyosa →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Acero or draw

78%

Acero or Villajoyosa

72%

Draw or Villajoyosa

50%

Winning margin

Acero wins by 2+

24%

Villajoyosa wins by 2+

Team goals

Acero 1+ goals

75%

Acero 2+ goals

40%

Acero 3+ goals

16%

Villajoyosa 1+ goals

56%

Villajoyosa 2+ goals

20%

Villajoyosa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Acero (draw refunded)

69%

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Acero at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Villajoyosa away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Acero attack 1.22 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Villajoyosa attack 0.56 + Acero defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Acero scores more

50%

level

28%

Villajoyosa scores more

22%

Acero at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Acero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff