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Acero vs Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Acero
Acero
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Roda
Roda
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Acero37%
×Draw30%
Roda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acero
1.08
Roda
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 111 away

creates per match

Acero
1.22
Roda
0.94

allows per match

Acero
1.10
Roda
0.95

finishing

Acero+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acero ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Acero or draw
67%
Acero or Roda
70%
Draw or Roda
63%

Winning margin

Acero wins by 2+
15%
Roda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Acero 1+ goals
66%
Acero 2+ goals
29%
Acero 3+ goals
10%
Roda 1+ goals
64%
Roda 2+ goals
27%
Roda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Acero (draw refunded)
52%
Roda (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acero at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acero attack 1.22 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Roda attack 0.94 + Acero defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Acero scores more
37%
level
30%
Roda scores more
33%

Acero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Acero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Acero 1–1 Roda

Acero and Roda drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Fornás in El Port de Sagunt.