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Acero vs Callosa Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Acero
Acero
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
1/15/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 22Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Acero45%
×Draw29%
Callosa Deportiva26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acero
1.25
Callosa Deportiva
0.89

Acero creates 40% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 18 away

creates per match

Acero
1.22
Callosa Deportiva
0.67

allows per match

Acero
1.10
Callosa Deportiva
1.28

finishing

Acero+0.00on par
Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acero ↓

Callosa Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Acero or draw
74%
Acero or Callosa Deportiva
71%
Draw or Callosa Deportiva
55%

Winning margin

Acero wins by 2+
20%
Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Acero 1+ goals
71%
Acero 2+ goals
36%
Acero 3+ goals
13%
Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
59%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
22%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Acero (draw refunded)
63%
Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acero at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Callosa Deportiva away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acero attack 1.22 + Callosa Deportiva defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.67 + Acero defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Acero scores more
45%
level
29%
Callosa Deportiva scores more
26%

Acero at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Acero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Acero vs Callosa Deportiva

Acero beat Callosa Deportiva 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Fornás in El Port de Sagunt.