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Acero vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Acero
Acero
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Benigànim
Benigànim
10/12/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 8Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Acero62%
×Draw22%
Benigànim17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acero
1.94
Benigànim
0.90

Acero creates 116% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 44 away

creates per match

Acero
1.22
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

Acero
1.10
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

Acero+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acero ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Acero or draw
83%
Acero or Benigànim
78%
Draw or Benigànim
38%

Winning margin

Acero wins by 2+
37%
Benigànim wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Acero 1+ goals
86%
Acero 2+ goals
58%
Acero 3+ goals
30%
Benigànim 1+ goals
59%
Benigànim 2+ goals
23%
Benigànim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Acero (draw refunded)
78%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acero at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acero attack 1.22 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.94

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Acero defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Acero scores more
62%
level
22%
Benigànim scores more
17%

Acero at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Acero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Acero vs Benigànim

Acero beat Benigànim 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Fornás in El Port de Sagunt.