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Acero vs Alcoyano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Acero
Acero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcoyano
Alcoyano
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 28Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Acero25%
×Draw28%
Alcoyano47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acero
0.93
Alcoyano
1.37

Alcoyano creates 47% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 14 away

creates per match

Acero
1.22
Alcoyano
1.64

allows per match

Acero
1.10
Alcoyano
0.64

finishing

Acero+0.00on par
Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acero ↓

Alcoyano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Acero or draw
53%
Acero or Alcoyano
72%
Draw or Alcoyano
75%

Winning margin

Acero wins by 2+
9%
Alcoyano wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Acero 1+ goals
61%
Acero 2+ goals
24%
Acero 3+ goals
7%
Alcoyano 1+ goals
75%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
40%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Acero (draw refunded)
35%
Alcoyano (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acero at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acero attack 1.22 + Alcoyano defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.93

Alcoyano attack 1.64 + Acero defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Acero scores more
25%
level
28%
Alcoyano scores more
47%

Alcoyano at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Acero 1–0 Alcoyano

Acero beat Alcoyano 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Fornás in El Port de Sagunt.