ACE 0–4 HJS Akatemia: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

ACE

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

HJS Akatemia

4/25/2023

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ACE6%

×Draw11%

HJS Akatemia84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACEExpected goals in this matchHJS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

3.19

ACE

0.73

HJS Akatemia

3.19

HJS Akatemia creates 337% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.33

creates per match

2.38

4.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

ACE

0.33

HJS Akatemia

2.38

allows per match

ACE

4.00

HJS Akatemia

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACE+0.00on par

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACE ↓

HJS Akatemia →

0–02%

0–17%

0–211%

0–311%

0–49%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

ACE or draw

16%

ACE or HJS Akatemia

89%

Draw or HJS Akatemia

94%

Winning margin

ACE wins by 2+

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

ACE 1+ goals

52%

ACE 2+ goals

17%

ACE 3+ goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

96%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

82%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

ACE (draw refunded)

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

ACE at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

ACE attack 0.33 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

HJS Akatemia attack 2.38 + ACE defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

ACE scores more

level

11%

HJS Akatemia scores more

84%

HJS Akatemia at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff