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ACE II vs JanPa — Suomen Cup 2018

ACE II
ACE II
FT
4 – 1
JanPa
JanPa
3/5/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ACE II36%
×Draw18%
JanPa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACE II
2.67
JanPa
3.00

JanPa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

ACE II
3.00
JanPa
4.00

allows per match

ACE II
2.00
JanPa
2.33

finishing

ACE II+0.00on par
JanPa+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACE II ↓

JanPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

ACE II or draw
54%
ACE II or JanPa
82%
Draw or JanPa
64%

Winning margin

ACE II wins by 2+
21%
JanPa wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

ACE II 1+ goals
93%
ACE II 2+ goals
74%
ACE II 3+ goals
49%
JanPa 1+ goals
95%
JanPa 2+ goals
79%
JanPa 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

ACE II (draw refunded)
44%
JanPa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACE II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

JanPa away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACE II attack 3.00 + JanPa defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

JanPa attack 4.00 + ACE II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ACE II scores more
36%
level
18%
JanPa scores more
46%

JanPa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "JanPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACE II vs JanPa

ACE II beat JanPa 4-1 in Suomen Cup on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Kauppi tekonurmi in Tampere.