Accrington ST 3–1 Wigan: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Wigan

D. Charles 61' (pen)

M. Nottingham 15'

C. Burgess 3'

C. Lang 1'

3/20/2021

League One · Round 37Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST37%

×Draw26%

Wigan37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

Accrington ST

1.38

Wigan

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 117 away

1.42

creates per match

1.32

1.44

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

Wigan

1.32

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

Wigan

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

63%

Accrington ST or Wigan

74%

Draw or Wigan

63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

17%

Wigan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

75%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

40%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

16%

Wigan 1+ goals

75%

Wigan 2+ goals

40%

Wigan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

50%

Wigan (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Wigan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wigan attack 1.32 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more

37%

level

26%

Wigan scores more

37%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. McConville

Accrington ST · F

8.9

Match Events

1'

C. Lang↳ D. Gardner

3'

C. Burgess↳ S. McConville

15'

M. Nottingham

61'

D. CharlesPenalty

63'

David Morgan

64'

J. Proctor← D. Gardner

79'

W. Keane← J. Dodoo

85'

H. Perritt← H. Rodgers

89'

Dion Charles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonWigan

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots17

4Corners10

15Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots17

4On Target4

4Off Target10

4Blocked3

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

277Total Passes327

127Accurate Passes176

46%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides5