Accrington ST 4–1 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sutton Utd

9/16/2023

League Two · Round 8Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST45%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.18

Accrington ST

1.52

Sutton Utd

1.18

Accrington ST creates 29% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.30

creates per match

1.12

1.23

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.30

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.23

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

70%

Accrington ST or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

55%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

22%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

78%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

45%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

69%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

60%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.30 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Accrington ST defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Accrington ST scores more

45%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

30%

Accrington ST at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff