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Accrington ST vs Preston — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
CANC
14:00
Preston
Preston
7/16/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Accrington ST42%
×Draw29%
Preston29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.21
Preston
0.95

Accrington ST creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.00
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Accrington ST
0.89
Preston
1.43

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
71%
Accrington ST or Preston
71%
Draw or Preston
58%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
18%
Preston wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
70%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
34%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
12%
Preston 1+ goals
61%
Preston 2+ goals
25%
Preston 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
59%
Preston (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.00 + Preston defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Preston attack 1.00 + Accrington ST defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Accrington ST scores more
42%
level
29%
Preston scores more
29%

Accrington ST at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Accrington ST host Preston

July 16, 2022: Accrington ST take on Preston in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Accrington ST host Preston at Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.